GLOBAL MARKETS-Investors keep powder dry ahead of US payrolls
(Updates at 1130 GMT) By Huw Jones LONDON, April 5 (Reuters) - Global shares eased on Friday as investors played safe ahead of key U.S. jobs numbers before the opening bell on Wall Street as geopolitical tension kept crude oil above $90 a barrel. Shares were off their lows in Europe as U.S. stock index futures EScv1 , NQcv1 , 1YMcv1 traded higher, recovering some ground after the three key U.S. indexes fell more than 1% each on Thursday on hawkish Fed comments and Middle East tension. U.S. non-farm payroll numbers for March are due at 1230 GMT, before the opening bell on Wall Street, with economists expecting a rise of 200,000, compared with 275,000 in February, while the unemployment rate is likely to keep steady at 3.9%. "We think a print below 200,000 should put pressure on the dollar, endorsing the recent signs that the employment story is softening and that the Fed will be in a comfortable position to start cutting in the summer," ING bank analysts said in a note. Once the payrolls are digested by markets, investors will look to next week's U.S. CPI inflation data for March to feed their Fed bets. The dollar =USD firmed against peer currencies after rebounding from a two-week low, while gold XAU= was headed for its third straight week of gains, underpinned by safe haven flows. The threat of supply disruptions from prolonged conflict in the Middle East kept Brent oil futures LCOc1 above $90 a barrel, a level not seen since October, with prices heading for their second weekly gain. O/R The MSCI All Country stock index .MIWD00000PUS was down 0.3% at 770.8 points as it continued to ease in the first week of the quarter after hitting a lifetime high at 785.62 points on March 21. In Europe, the STOXX .STOXX index of 600 companies dropped to more than a two-week low, with the benchmark on track for its worst day since mid-October. It was down 1.1% at 505.12 points after Tuesday's lifetime high of 515.77 points. A cooling U.S. services sector and comments this week from Fed Chair Jerome Powell reinforced the view that rate cuts were likely to commence at some point this year. However, some other Fed officials have taken a more conservative view, with Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, in particular, striking a more hawkish stance overnight, saying rate cuts might not be required this year if inflation continues to stall. "It's the first time I've heard those kind of statements, so the markets sold off, and at the same time we had a flare-up in geopolitical tensions in the Middle East," said Mark Ellis, CEO of Nutshell Asset Management. So far, however, there appears to be a healthy pullback in markets after grinding higher in a very tight trendline to leave it looking a bit stretched, Ellis said. He pointed to a jump in the VIX .VIX , Wall Street's "fear gauge", which posted its highest close since Nov. 1. "It suggests we are at a bit of a turning point now, whether this is a natural pullback in a bull market, or whether it's going to turn into something a little bit more," Ellis said. ASIA EASES MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan .MIAPJ0000PUS fell 0.45%, tracking a late tumble on Wall Street as risk aversion dominated the market mood. The index was set to end the week little changed. A holiday in China also made for thinner trade. Tokyo's Nikkei .N225 fell 2%, pressured in part by a stronger yen, thanks to the prospect of further rate hikes there and more jawboning from Japanese officials. .T Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index .HSI was little changed. Fed officials' comments supported the dollar against a basket of currencies =USD , lifting it away from a two-week low hit after a downbeat U.S. services survey. The euro EUR=EBS was little changed, and the yen JPY=EBS edged up. Fed fund futures 0#FF: point to just under 75 basis points worth of easing this year, closer in line with the Fed's projections and a significant pullback from nearly 160 bps worth of cuts priced in at the start of the year. That shift has left U.S. Treasuries struggling, with the 10-year yield US10YT=RR hovering near its highest in more than three months, last at 4.331%. US/ The two-year yield US2YT=RR firmed at 4.664%. Bond yields move inversely to prices. In commodities, Brent crude LCOc1 edged up 0.3% to $90.91 a barrel, after striking a more than five-month high on Thursday. U.S. crude CLc1 was slightly firmer at $86.67 per barrel. Gold gained 0.13% to $2,292 an ounce XAU= , nearing its record high on Thursday. GOL/ <^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ World FX rates YTD http://tmsnrt.rs/2egbfVh Global asset performance http://tmsnrt.rs/2yaDPgn Asian stock markets https://tmsnrt.rs/2zpUAr4 FED AND YIELDS https://tmsnrt.rs/3PPRCCV Nine of the 11 major S&P 500 sectors eye weekly losses https://tmsnrt.rs/3vCooAL ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^> (Reporting by Rae Wee and Huw Jones; Editing by Tom Hogue, Clarence Fernandez and Nick Macfie) (([email protected];)) ((To read Reuters Markets and Finance news, click on https://www.reuters.com/finance/markets For the state of play of Asian stock markets please click on: 0#.INDEXA ))
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